Washington, DC, February 11 - A recent analysis from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies has concluded that the US Air Force requires a substantial expansion of its next-generation aircraft fleet to maintain superiority in a potential high-intensity conflict with China. The think tank's policy paper, "Strategic Attack: Maintaining the Air Force’s Capacity to Deny Enemy Sanctuaries," argues that current procurement plans fall short of what is necessary to deny an adversary safe operating areas and sustain prolonged strategic strikes. Specifically, the report recommends acquiring at least 300 sixth-generation F-47 fighters and 200 B-21 Raider stealth bombers, totaling a minimum of 500 next-gen fighters and bombers. This recommendation significantly exceeds the Air Force's previously stated intentions of procuring at least 185 F-47s from Boeing and around 100 B-21s from Northrop Grumman.
The rationale centers on the need for a robust "sanctuary denial force" capable of penetrating advanced air defenses and conducting repeated deep strikes against critical infrastructure, military bases, and command centers located far inside enemy territory. According to the report, the planned smaller fleets would support only limited raids rather than a sustained campaign essential for prevailing in a protracted war. Experts emphasize that sixth-generation platforms like the F-47 and B-21, with superior stealth, range, and sensor capabilities, must operate jointly to dismantle protected zones from which an opponent could launch missiles and aircraft with relative impunity. Without adequate numbers, the Air Force risks relying excessively on older, less survivable aircraft ill-suited for contested environments in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Mitchell Institute further stresses that modernizing the force mix is critical to counter China's deliberate efforts to establish expansive protected areas across the western Pacific. Current legacy bombers and fighters, while valuable, lack the penetration power required to close thousands of long-range targeting chains quickly and effectively during a peer-level confrontation. The analysis warns that failing to invest in sufficient quantities of advanced stealth platforms could leave the United States vulnerable to attrition and unable to maintain credible deterrence or operational momentum.
Ultimately, the report calls for accelerated production, retention of existing legacy systems until new aircraft reach operational maturity, and a shift away from divestment strategies to ensure the US Air Force can achieve air dominance against a near-peer adversary. Achieving this expanded fleet of next-gen fighters and bombers would represent a major commitment to long-term strategic airpower in an era of intensifying great-power competition.