Russia is becoming more hostile as a result of American support for Ukraine. However, it may stumble into a severe disaster.
Russian pilots have been engaging in increasingly dangerous and provocative behavior over Syria, according to U.S. Central Command. These incidents include an April 2 encounter in which a Russian Su-35 “Flanker-E” multi-role fighter conducted an “unsafe and unprofessional” intercept of a U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter, and an April 18 encounter when a Russian fighter “violated coalition airspace and came within 2,000 feet of a U.S. aircraft, a distance a fighter jet can cover in a matter of seconds.” U.S. forces deployed to Syria in the late 2010s to lead a coalition that opposed the Islamic State, and Russian forces consider the Coalition presence an intrusion into Moscow’s sphere of influence. Additionally, Russia has lost at least 72 aircraft over the course of the war, many to U.S.-supplied weapons, including at least one Su-35 fighter.
Russia’s frustration is that it knows exactly where and how U.S. and NATO military aid for Ukraine enters the country but is unable to do anything about it. The recent Russian activity is all the more dangerous because Moscow’s air forces have repeatedly demonstrated provocative and incompetent behavior. On September 29, 2022, a Su-27 Flanker fighter nearly shot down a Royal Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint intelligence-gathering aircraft. In mid-March 2023, a Russian fighter performing a close pass near a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper accidentally clipped the drone’s propeller.
Russian anger at NATO support for Ukraine manifests itself as aerial bullying, but it’s becoming hard to tell when Russia really feels threatened. Russia is buzzing U.S. forces with jet fighters, but it’s been doing so for nearly a decade, buzzing the guided-missile destroyer USS Donald Cook in 2014. U.S. forces have kept a cool head and not taken the bait, but that may not be enough.