London, April 11 - European aviation hubs are bracing for a potential systemic jet fuel shortage that could paralyze air travel across the continent within the next three weeks. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has issued an urgent warning to European Union transport and energy commissioners, highlighting a critical depletion of kerosene reserves. This supply chain crisis is primarily attributed to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which nearly 40% of the world’s jet fuel typically flows. With Middle Eastern refineries serving as the primary source for over 60% of Europe’s aviation fuel imports, the disruption has left the continent’s logistics network in an incredibly precarious position.
The timing of this fuel crunch is particularly alarming as the industry prepares for the peak summer travel season, a period essential for the economic stability of tourism-dependent nations. ACI Europe’s communication underscores that without a significant and stable resumption of maritime traffic through the Persian Gulf, the European aviation sector will face a reality where demand simply cannot be met. Current estimates suggest that many smaller, regional airports maintain on-site reserves sufficient for only four to five weeks, leaving them highly vulnerable to immediate service interruptions. Larger international hubs are also feeling the pressure, as the cost of securing emergency supplies has skyrocketed, with benchmark prices more than doubling compared to the previous year.
Market analysts note that the logistics of aviation fuel are far more rigid than those of crude oil, as kerosene lacks the diverse pipeline infrastructure that can sometimes bypass maritime blockades. Consequently, airline operators are already exploring contingency measures, including fuel tankering, the expensive practice of carrying extra fuel from unaffected regions, and the potential for widespread flight cancellations. These disruptions are expected to hit leisure routes first, as carriers prioritize long-haul commercial flights. The escalating fuel costs, which have peaked at record levels in Northwest Europe, are already being passed on to consumers through increased surcharges, threatening to dampen the post-pandemic recovery of the aviation industry.
To mitigate a total collapse of air connectivity, the industry body is calling for the immediate implementation of an EU-wide monitoring system to track fuel production and availability. The current lack of a centralized mapping tool for energy assets has left the bloc reactive rather than proactive in the face of this geopolitical shock. As refineries in the Middle East struggle to normalize operations despite tentative ceasefire discussions, the lag in shipping times means that even an immediate reopening of trade routes would take months to stabilize European inventories. For now, the European aviation landscape remains on a knife-edge, with the specter of grounded fleets looming over the upcoming holiday period.