Singapore, February 5 - The aviation industry faces mounting challenges in its pursuit of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, as persistent shortages of new aircraft and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) threaten to undermine progress toward this ambitious goal. International Air Transport Association (IATA) Director General Willie Walsh highlighted these concerns, noting that supply chain disruptions have delayed the delivery of more fuel-efficient aircraft, forcing airlines to extend the service life of older, less efficient planes. This prolonged reliance on aging fleets increases fuel consumption and elevates overall emissions, counteracting gains from operational improvements and technological advancements. Aviation accounts for approximately 2% to 3% of global CO2 emissions, and the industry's Fly Net Zero commitment, adopted by IATA's member airlines in 2021, depends heavily on fleet modernization to reduce carbon intensity.
Compounding the issue is the severe shortfall in sustainable aviation fuel supplies, a cornerstone of the sector's decarbonization strategy. Walsh emphasized that SAF production remains far below expectations, reaching only about 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, equivalent to roughly 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption, marking a downward revision from prior forecasts. High production costs, often more than double those of conventional jet fuel, combined with limited output, have slowed adoption despite growing policy incentives. Without substantial scaling of SAF, airlines struggle to blend lower-carbon alternatives into their operations, hindering the transition to cleaner flying and placing additional pressure on emissions reduction pathways.
These intertwined shortages are not only delaying environmental progress but also straining airline economics. Suppliers of aircraft, engines, and parts have benefited from constrained capacity, leading to elevated costs that disproportionately affect carriers operating on thin margins. Walsh described the situation as unsustainable, pointing out that supply bottlenecks are inadvertently increasing gross emissions by slowing the replacement of older aircraft. The industry requires accelerated investment in manufacturing and fuel production infrastructure to align supply with demand and maintain momentum toward long-term sustainability targets.
Despite the headwinds, Walsh expressed cautious optimism about achieving net zero emissions by 2050, though he acknowledged that the path has become significantly more challenging. Addressing these supply-side constraints through collaborative efforts across manufacturers, fuel producers, and policymakers will be essential to prevent further slippage. As the sector navigates post-pandemic recovery and rising travel demand, resolving aircraft delivery delays and boosting SAF availability remain critical priorities to safeguard the credibility of aviation's emissions goals.