Ankara, September 17 - Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in 2019, following its acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system, has significantly reshaped its defense and security outlook, compelling the nation to adopt a multi-layered strategy to maintain its military edge and regional influence. The F-35, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, was intended to bolster Turkey’s air superiority and interoperability with NATO allies. Its removal from the program, driven by U.S. concerns over potential S-400 compatibility risks with NATO systems, forced Turkey to recalibrate its defense priorities. This shift has impacted Turkey’s air force capabilities and its broader geopolitical positioning, as it balances relations with NATO, Russia, and emerging defense partners. Turkey has pursued indigenous defense development, alternative procurement, and strategic diplomacy to address this gap and ensure its security in a volatile region.
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Central to Turkey’s response is the acceleration of its domestic defense industry, which has become a cornerstone of its security strategy. Programs like the TF-X National Combat Aircraft, aimed at producing a fifth-generation fighter jet, demonstrate Turkey’s ambition to achieve self-reliance in advanced military technology. Supported by Turkish Aerospace Industries, the TF-X project seeks to deliver a platform capable of rivaling the F-35’s stealth, sensor fusion, and network-centric warfare capabilities by the early 2030s. Additionally, Turkey has invested heavily in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), with systems like the Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones gaining international acclaim for their combat effectiveness in conflicts such as those in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh. These drones provide cost-effective, versatile solutions for reconnaissance, precision strikes, and asymmetric warfare, partially offsetting the loss of the F-35’s advanced capabilities. By prioritizing indigenous production, Turkey aims to reduce its dependence on foreign suppliers while enhancing its defense export market, further strengthening its geopolitical leverage.
Beyond domestic innovation, Turkey has diversified its defense procurement to mitigate the F-35 gap. The acquisition of the S-400 system itself reflects Turkey’s willingness to engage with non-NATO partners, despite the resulting tensions with the U.S. and NATO. To maintain air combat capabilities, Turkey has explored alternative fighter jets, including negotiations for advanced Russian Su-35 and Su-57 aircraft, though such deals remain politically contentious due to NATO alignment concerns. Additionally, Turkey has upgraded its existing fleet of F-16 fighters, seeking modernization kits and additional units from the U.S. to sustain its air force’s operational readiness. These efforts are complemented by investments in air defense systems, such as the domestically developed Hisar and Siper missile systems, designed to counter regional threats from ballistic missiles and hostile aircraft. This multi-pronged procurement strategy allows Turkey to address immediate security needs while maintaining flexibility in its foreign relations.
Turkey’s security outlook without the F-35 also hinges on its strategic diplomacy and regional positioning. As a NATO member with a critical geopolitical location, Turkey has leveraged its role in conflicts across the Middle East, Caucasus, and Eastern Mediterranean to assert influence. By maintaining a delicate balance between Western allies and Russia, Turkey secures access to diverse defense technologies while navigating sanctions and diplomatic fallout. Its active involvement in regional conflicts, supported by its drone capabilities and conventional forces, underscores its ability to project power independently. Furthermore, Turkey’s partnerships with countries like Qatar, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine have expanded its defense cooperation, fostering technology transfers and joint ventures. While the F-35’s absence poses challenges, Turkey’s multi-layered strategy—blending indigenous innovation, diversified procurement, and assertive diplomacy- positions it to maintain a robust defense posture in an increasingly complex global security environment.
