Ankara, July 1 - Turkey’s potential shift from Russian S-400 air defense systems to rejoining the U.S.-led F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program marks a significant pivot in its defense strategy, with implications that could reshape regional geopolitics, particularly in relation to India. This development, reported widely in recent defense news, underscores Turkey’s complex balancing act as a NATO member navigating tensions between Western alliances and its past dealings with Russia. The possibility of Turkey offloading its S-400 systems to India, a country with which it has strained relations, adds another layer of intrigue to this unfolding scenario.
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Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program in 2019 stemmed from its decision to purchase the Russian S-400 Triumf air defense system, a move that alarmed the United States and NATO allies. The S-400, with its advanced radar capable of tracking targets at ranges up to 600 kilometers, was seen as a potential threat to the F-35’s stealth capabilities. U.S. officials feared that operating both systems in Turkey could allow Russia to gather critical data on the F-35’s electromagnetic signatures, compromising the jet’s technological edge. As a result, Turkey, which had been a key partner in the F-35 consortium and planned to acquire 100 F-35A Lightning II aircraft after contributing $1.4 billion to the program, was expelled and faced sanctions under the U.S. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
Recent developments suggest a thaw in U.S.-Turkey relations, particularly following discussions between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump at the NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025. Reports indicate that Turkey is actively seeking to rejoin the F-35 program, potentially by deactivating or relinquishing its S-400 systems. This shift aligns with Turkey’s strategic need to counter regional adversaries like Israel and Greece, both of whom operate or will soon operate F-35 jets. As a NATO member, Turkey faces interoperability challenges with the S-400, which is not compatible with NATO’s integrated defense systems, further incentivizing a return to Western military hardware. The possibility of Turkey selling its S-400 systems to India introduces a surprising twist. India, which has deployed three of its five contracted S-400 squadrons from Russia under a $5.43 billion deal signed in 2018, has prioritized these systems to counter threats from Pakistan and China. The S-400’s proven performance during India’s Operation Sindoor in May 2025, where it intercepted Pakistani aircraft, has solidified its role in India’s air defense network.
However, India’s acquisition of Russian systems has complicated its own aspirations to join the F-35 program, as the U.S. remains wary of the S-400’s presence alongside its stealth jets. Turkey’s potential transfer of its S-400 units to India could deepen New Delhi’s reliance on Russian technology, even as it pursues its indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program to develop a fifth-generation fighter. This scenario highlights the divergent paths of Turkey and India. Turkey’s pivot toward the F-35 aligns with its NATO obligations and regional security concerns, while India’s commitment to the S-400 and its AMCA program reflects a strategy of strategic autonomy. The transfer of S-400 systems from Turkey to India, if realized, could exacerbate tensions between the two nations, given their opposing geopolitical stances, such as Turkey’s support for Pakistan during the recent India-Pakistan conflict. For the U.S., facilitating Turkey’s return to the F-35 program while managing India’s interest in the jet presents a delicate diplomatic challenge, as both nations navigate their respective defense priorities in a complex global landscape.