Yerevan, August 31 - In a strategic response to Azerbaijan’s $4.6 billion deal to acquire 40 JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter jets from Pakistan, Armenia has intensified negotiations with India to procure Su-30MKI multirole fighters, aiming to bolster its air force capabilities. The agreement, announced in June 2025, marks Pakistan’s largest defense export and equips Azerbaijan with advanced, lightweight jets co-developed with China, featuring active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars and long-range PL-15 missiles. Armenia, with its modest fleet of four Russian-made Su-30SM jets and aging Su-25s, faces a significant challenge in maintaining air parity in the South Caucasus, where tensions persist following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Yerevan’s talks with India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) focus on acquiring 8–12 Su-30MKIs, a cost-effective alternative to pricier Western options like the French Rafale, which costs upwards of $200 million per unit. The Su-30MKI, a heavily customized variant of the Russian Su-30, integrates Indian avionics, thrust-vectoring engines, and compatibility with advanced munitions, offering Armenia a robust platform to counter Azerbaijan’s modernized air force.
.gif)
The Su-30MKI’s appeal lies in its versatility and firepower, outmatching the JF-17 in several key areas. With a combat range of 1,500 km (extendable with refueling) and a top speed of Mach 2.0, it surpasses the JF-17’s 1,200 km range and Mach 1.6 speed, enabling sustained operations over the mountainous Caucasus terrain. Armenia is particularly interested in integrating Indian-made weapons, such as the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile with a 450-km range and the Astra Mk1 air-to-air missile with a 110-km range, which enhance the jet’s lethality against ground and air targets. These capabilities could provide a strategic deterrent against Azerbaijan’s JF-17s, which, despite advanced avionics, are lighter and carry less payload. Additionally, Armenia seeks to upgrade its existing Su-30SMs with Indian systems, such as the Virupaksha AESA radar, to improve interoperability and reduce reliance on Russian spares, which have been disrupted by sanctions and Moscow’s focus on its Ukraine conflict. This move aligns with Armenia’s growing defense partnership with India, solidified through a $2 billion deal in 2020 for systems like the Akash-1S air defense and Pinaka rocket launchers.
Azerbaijan’s JF-17 acquisition, initiated with a $1.6 billion deal in February 2024 and expanded in 2025, reflects a shift away from its traditional Russian arms suppliers toward a Pakistan-China axis, further strengthened by Turkey’s support. The JF-17 Block III, equipped with Chinese fifth-generation technologies inspired by the J-20, enhances Azerbaijan’s air combat capabilities, replacing aging MiG-29s and Su-25s. The deal includes pilot training, munitions, and infrastructure upgrades, signaling a comprehensive modernization effort. This procurement, showcased by President Ilham Aliyev at Baku’s Heydar Aliyev International Airport in September 2024, has heightened Armenia’s urgency to modernize its air force, as the JF-17’s AESA radar and Turkish-made missiles pose a significant threat. Armenia’s pivot to India counters Azerbaijan’s alignment with Pakistan, a geopolitical rival of New Delhi, and could escalate the regional arms race, with Baku potentially responding by further enhancing its JF-17 fleet or integrating advanced Turkish drones and air defense systems.
The potential Su-30MKI deal represents a broader geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus, where Russia’s influence as an arms supplier has waned due to its commitments in Ukraine. India’s emergence as a key defense partner for Armenia, coupled with HAL’s production capacity and pilot training support, positions New Delhi to reshape the regional balance. The Su-30MKI’s ability to conduct long-range strikes and suppress enemy air defenses (SEAD) could challenge Azerbaijan’s drone-heavy strategy, which proved decisive in 2020. However, the deal’s success hinges on Armenia canceling a stalled Russian order for eight Su-30SMs, with HAL potentially reimbursing advance payments to facilitate the transition. This acquisition would mark India’s first Su-30MKI export, boosting its defense industry while strengthening Armenia’s deterrence posture. As both nations modernize, the Caucasus risks becoming a flashpoint for a proxy contest between India and Pakistan, with Armenia and Azerbaijan leveraging these partnerships to secure strategic advantages in their ongoing rivalry.