Beijing, August 25 - China’s ambition to challenge the global aviation duopoly of Boeing and Airbus through its state-backed Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) has encountered significant hurdles, as Chinese airlines pivot back to Western manufacturers for their fleet expansions. Despite a $72 billion investment in Comac, particularly in its C919 narrowbody jet, the company has struggled to gain traction beyond domestic markets. Recent reports indicate that Chinese carriers, including major players like Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, are planning to order nearly 1,000 new jets, with Boeing and Airbus securing the lion’s share of these contracts. Comac, which has been developing the C919 for nearly two decades, has delivered fewer than 200 aircraft since 2008, a stark contrast to the thousands of planes delivered by its Western competitors over the same period. The C919, intended as a rival to Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’s A320, faces challenges due to its reliance on Western components and difficulties in obtaining international certification, limiting its appeal outside China.
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The C919’s limited global acceptance stems from its dependence on Western technology, particularly engines from CFM International, a joint venture between GE Aviation and Safran, and other critical components sourced from North America and Europe. While Chinese state media claims that about 40% of the C919’s parts are imported, industry experts suggest the figure is significantly higher, undermining Beijing’s narrative of a “homegrown” aircraft. This reliance on foreign suppliers not only complicates production but also exposes Comac to vulnerabilities in global supply chains, especially amid escalating trade tensions. For instance, U.S. tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods and China’s retaliatory 125% tariffs on U.S. imports have disrupted Boeing’s deliveries to China, indirectly affecting Comac’s supply chain for Western parts. The C919’s inability to secure certification from U.S. and European aviation regulators further restricts its export potential, confining its operations primarily to domestic routes operated by state-owned airlines.
China’s aviation market, one of the largest and fastest-growing globally, is projected to demand over 8,000 new aircraft in the next two decades, according to industry forecasts. However, Comac’s production capacity lags far behind its Western rivals. While Boeing produces 38 737 MAX aircraft monthly and Airbus aims for 75 A320 units per month by 2027, Comac manufactures just one C919 per month, with optimistic estimates suggesting an increase to 11 by 2040. This gap in production scalability, coupled with Boeing and Airbus’s established reputations for reliability and efficiency, makes it difficult for Comac to compete for orders, even within China. The recent decision by Chinese airlines to favor Boeing and Airbus for a massive fleet refresh highlights a preference for proven technology over national pride, as carriers prioritize operational reliability and global compatibility over supporting Comac’s ambitions.
The trade war between the U.S. and China has further complicated Comac’s prospects while simultaneously impacting Boeing’s market share in China. Earlier this year, China reportedly ordered its airlines to halt Boeing jet deliveries in response to U.S. tariffs, leading to the return of several 737 MAX jets to the U.S. from Boeing’s Zhoushan facility. Despite these tensions, Chinese airlines have resumed negotiations with Boeing and Airbus, signaling a pragmatic approach to fleet modernization. For Comac, this shift underscores the challenges of breaking into a market dominated by two giants with decades of expertise and global trust. While Comac plans to expand into Southeast Asia by 2026 and eventually target Western markets, its current trajectory suggests that China’s jet dream remains grounded, tethered to the realities of technological dependence and the slow pace of building a globally competitive aviation industry.