Washington, DC, August 20 - Canada’s ongoing review of its $19-billion commitment to purchase 88 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets has reached a critical juncture, as the newly elected Liberal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney faces mounting pressure from both domestic and international fronts. Initially finalized in 2023 after a protracted 13-year procurement process to replace the aging CF-18 Hornet fleet, the F-35 deal has been thrust back into uncertainty amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. The Trump administration, vocal about its frustration with Canada’s hesitation, has hinted that backing away from the deal could jeopardize the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), a cornerstone of bilateral defense cooperation. This rhetoric, coupled with threats of economic coercion and tariffs, has cast the F-35 review as a high-stakes balancing act between national sovereignty, military modernization, and economic pragmatism. The Canadian government’s insistence on portraying the review as routine due diligence belies the complex interplay of strategic and political factors at play, as Ottawa navigates a path that could reshape its defense posture for decades.
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The roots of this review trace back to March 2025, when Carney, shortly after assuming office, tasked Defense Minister Bill Blair with re-evaluating the F-35 contract in light of strained U.S.-Canada relations. The decision was spurred by public and political backlash against U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and provocative statements about Canada becoming the “51st state.” These tensions have fueled calls to diversify Canada’s defense procurement away from American suppliers, with European alternatives like Sweden’s Saab Gripen gaining attention for their potential to bolster domestic industry. However, the F-35’s advanced stealth capabilities, interoperability with allied forces, and Canada’s deep integration with U.S. defense systems make pivoting to another platform a logistical and financial gamble. The government has already committed funds for the first 16 jets, with deliveries expected in 2026, and any move to scale back the order could incur significant penalties while complicating Canada’s role in NORAD and NATO operations.
Critics argue that the review risks being mired in political posturing rather than grounded in strategic necessity. The F-35 program, exhaustively studied over 15 years by parliamentary watchdogs and independent panels, is seen by defense experts as the most viable option to meet Canada’s pressing need to replace its obsolete CF-18s. Operating two different fighter jet fleets—should Canada opt for a partial order of F-35s alongside another aircraft—would inflate training and maintenance costs, straining an already tight defense budget. Moreover, concerns about U.S. control over the F-35’s software and source code, which Lockheed Martin closely guards, have raised fears that Washington could limit Canada’s operational autonomy, particularly given Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy. Yet, defense officials, including Canada’s top military commander, Gen. Jennie Carignan, have downplayed these risks, emphasizing the jets’ critical role in North American defense and dismissing notions of a U.S.-imposed “kill switch” as misinformation.
As Canada’s review drags on, the window for a decisive resolution narrows. The Royal Canadian Air Force faces mounting pressure to modernize swiftly, with CF-18s nearing the end of their service life. Delaying or altering the F-35 order could disrupt pilot training, already underway, and undermine Canada’s commitments to NATO’s 5% defense spending goal by 2030. The Trump administration’s irritation, voiced publicly, underscores the broader geopolitical stakes, as Canada’s decision could ripple across the F-35’s global supply chain, affecting costs for other nations. While the Liberal government seeks to assert economic and industrial independence, the reality of Canada’s deep military integration with the U.S. and the F-35’s unmatched capabilities present formidable hurdles. Ottawa must weigh the risks of antagonizing a key ally against the domestic push for sovereignty, all while ensuring its air force remains equipped to defend North American airspace in an increasingly volatile world.