Japan's Concerns Over China's Expanding Airpower Reach


Tokyo, July 19 - Japan’s 2025 Defense White Paper, issued by the Ministry of Defense, has raised significant concerns about the rapid expansion of China’s airpower capabilities, marking it as the nation’s greatest strategic challenge. The report highlights China’s growing military assertiveness, particularly its air force’s ability to project power beyond the First Island Chain, a geographic boundary stretching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines, into the broader Pacific, including areas near the Second Island Chain, which encompasses the U.S. territory of Guam and Palau. This expansion is seen as part of Beijing’s broader effort to normalize its military presence in the region, testing the responses of Japan and its allies while enhancing its operational capabilities.

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The white paper details China’s formidable air force, noting that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) possesses 1,668 fourth- and fifth-generation fighter jets, significantly outnumbering Japan’s 330. This numerical disparity underscores the growing challenge Japan faces in maintaining air superiority in its vicinity. The report specifically points to the Xian H-6K bomber, capable of carrying six CJ-20 cruise missiles with an estimated range exceeding 800 nautical miles, as a major threat. These missiles, potentially equipped with conventional or nuclear warheads, enhance China’s long-range strike capabilities. The newer H-6N variant further extends this reach through air-to-air refueling, enabling sustained operations far from China’s shores. Additionally, the PLAAF’s increasing activity, including frequent bomber flights with sophisticated routes and fleet organizations, is interpreted as a deliberate show of force aimed at asserting dominance around Japan.

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China’s growing airpower is complemented by its expanding naval capabilities, particularly the deployment of aircraft carriers. In June 2025, Japan observed two Chinese carriers, the Shandong and Liaoning, operating together in the Pacific near Iwo Jima, marking a significant milestone in China’s naval reach. These operations, coupled with a tripling in the frequency of Chinese warship passages near southwestern Japan over the past three years, particularly in waters between Taiwan and Japan’s Yonaguni Island, signal Beijing’s intent to project power deeper into the Pacific. The white paper also notes a confirmed Chinese military aircraft incursion into Japanese airspace in August 2024, alongside a carrier group sailing near southern Japanese islands, raising alarms about potential escalations.

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Japan’s concerns are compounded by China’s intensifying military coordination with Russia, exemplified by joint bomber drills off Alaska, and increasing tensions around Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. The report warns that these activities, combined with North Korea’s advancing missile programs, contribute to a deteriorating regional security environment. In response, Japan is bolstering its defenses, accelerating military buildup on its southwestern islands, testing surface-to-ship missiles, and planning to acquire shipborne unmanned aerial vehicles in 2025. Additionally, Japan is upgrading its F-15J fighters and strengthening defense ties with allies like the United States, Australia, and the Philippines to counter China’s growing influence. The white paper emphasizes that China’s actions not only threaten Japan’s security but also challenge the broader international order, signaling a new era of strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific.

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