Portugal has recently made a decisive move to distance itself from acquiring Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II fighter jets, a decision rooted in growing concerns over the unpredictability of the United States as a reliable ally. This shift, articulated by Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo in an interview with the outlet Público on March 13, 2025, marks a significant pivot for a NATO member that has long depended on American military hardware. The announcement effectively extinguishes years of speculation and planning that had positioned the F-35 as a likely successor to Portugal’s aging fleet of F-16 Fighting Falcons, signaling a broader reevaluation of transatlantic defense ties amid shifting geopolitical currents.
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For decades, Portugal’s air force has leaned on the F-16, a versatile fourth-generation fighter introduced to its arsenal in the 1990s through the Peace Atlantis programs. These aircraft, a mix of new and second-hand models, have undergone mid-life upgrades to remain operational, supporting NATO missions and safeguarding Portuguese airspace. By 2019, murmurs of transitioning to the fifth-generation F-35 had begun to circulate, with the Portuguese Air Force showing interest in the jet’s advanced stealth capabilities and cutting-edge sensor systems. The prospect gained traction in April 2024 when General João Cartaxo Alves, the air force chief, suggested Portugal was already in a “transition” toward the F-35, estimating a €5.5 billion investment and referencing workshops with Lockheed Martin and the U.S. Air Force. Yet, despite this momentum, no formal procurement had been finalized, and the Ministry of Defense quickly clarified that such statements reflected a vision rather than a commitment.
The turning point came with the reemergence of Donald Trump on the U.S. political stage, inaugurated for his second term just months before Melo’s statement. Historically critical of NATO and its financial burdens on the U.S., Trump's rhetoric has rekindled doubts among European allies about America’s steadfastness. This unpredictability translates into tangible risks for Portugal: reliance on the F-35 could leave its air force vulnerable to disruptions in maintenance, software updates, or spare parts—all controlled through U.S.-managed systems. Melo emphasized that the “predictability of our allies” is now a paramount factor, pointing to fears that an erratic U.S. administration might leverage its technological dominance over the F-35 to influence or constrain Portugal’s strategic autonomy. This concern is not unfounded—while rumors of a so-called “kill switch” in the F-35 have been debunked, the jet’s dependency on American support infrastructure remains a choke point for foreign operators.
In rejecting the F-35, Portugal is not abandoning its need to modernize. The F-16 fleet, now numbering around 30 operational aircraft, is nearing the end of its service life, with replacement slated for the early 2030s. Instead of doubling down on American ties, Melo signaled a pivot toward European alternatives, hinting at options like the French Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon, or the Saab Gripen. These jets, while lacking the F-35’s fifth-generation stealth, offer Portugal a chance to bolster European defense industries and reduce reliance on a partner whose commitment appears increasingly uncertain. The decision dovetails with broader EU calls for defense autonomy, as articulated by the European Commission’s push for “large-scale pan-European flagship projects” to counter potential threats, notably from Russia. Portugal’s choice carries implications beyond its borders. As a small but committed NATO player, its hesitation could ripple through the alliance, where the F-35 has been touted as a unifying standard, adopted by nations like Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany. Yet, Melo’s stance reflects a pragmatic calculus: in an era of geopolitical flux, betting on a single ally’s consistency may no longer suffice. With snap elections looming after a government collapse in March 2025, the final path remains fluid, but Portugal has made clear it will not strap itself into the F-35—or the uncertainties it now represents.