Canada’s potential decision to abandon its $19 billion deal to purchase 88 F-35 fighter jets from the United States has emerged as a significant point of contention amid escalating tensions between the two North American neighbors. The agreement, finalized in June 2023 with U.S. defense giant Lockheed Martin, marked the largest investment in the Royal Canadian Air Force in over three decades. It was intended to replace Canada’s aging fleet of CF-18 jets with a state-of-the-art, stealth-capable aircraft designed to enhance interoperability with allies in NATO and NORAD. However, recent developments, including a burgeoning trade war and provocative rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, have prompted the Canadian government, now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, to reconsider this commitment. Defense Minister Bill Blair has publicly acknowledged that while the F-35 was identified by the Canadian military as the preferred platform, Ottawa is actively exploring alternatives, raising questions about the future of this high-stakes procurement.
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The catalyst for this shift appears to be a combination of economic and geopolitical pressures. In early 2025, Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, with threats of broader tariffs on all Canadian goods looming by April. These measures, coupled with Trump’s repeated assertions that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state, have inflamed public sentiment and strained bilateral relations. For many Canadians, the tariffs represent an economic assault, while the annexation rhetoric challenges national sovereignty. Against this backdrop, the Liberal government has faced growing domestic support for reevaluating its reliance on American-made military hardware. The F-35 deal, already controversial due to years of delays and debates over cost and capability, has become a lightning rod in this broader dispute.
Canada’s concerns extend beyond economics and symbolism. The F-35’s heavy reliance on U.S.-controlled systems has long been a point of contention. Lockheed Martin has refused to share the aircraft’s full source code—comprising over 8 million lines of programming—with foreign buyers, including close allies like Canada. This means that critical mission data, essential for the jet’s advanced situational awareness and combat effectiveness, must be processed through U.S.-based facilities. Additionally, major maintenance, software upgrades, and the supply chain for spare parts are predominantly tied to the United States. Critics argue that this dependency could leave Canada vulnerable, particularly if relations with the U.S. deteriorate further. The notion that Washington could, in theory, limit Canada’s operational autonomy over its own fleet has fueled calls to seek alternatives that offer greater sovereign control.
One such alternative is the Swedish-made Saab Gripen E, which came in second during the original bidding process. Unlike the F-35, the Gripen is less computerized and lacks stealth technology, but Saab has offered to assemble the aircraft in Canada and transfer intellectual property, allowing for domestic maintenance and upgrades. This prospect aligns with Prime Minister Carney’s stated goal of redirecting defense spending to bolster the Canadian industry rather than funneling billions into the U.S. economy. However, integrating a mixed fleet—accepting the first 16 F-35s already paid for while shifting to Gripens for the remainder—poses logistical challenges. The Royal Canadian Air Force has historically resisted operating multiple fighter types, citing the high costs of separate training programs, infrastructure, and supply chains. Despite these hurdles, Blair has indicated that discussions with European manufacturers are underway, signaling a potential pivot away from the all-American fleet envisioned in 2023. The implications of scrapping the F-35 deal are profound. Militarily, the F-35’s advanced capabilities are unmatched by most alternatives, making it a cornerstone of NORAD’s modernization efforts against emerging threats like hypersonic weapons and cyberattacks. Walking away could strain Canada’s security partnership with the U.S., particularly within NORAD, where interoperability is paramount. Economically, the decision risks disrupting contracts worth hundreds of millions for Canadian firms involved in F-35 production, though proponents of cancellation argue that redirecting funds to domestic or European options could offset these losses. Politically, it’s a bold move that could either assert Canada’s independence or provoke retaliatory measures from a Trump administration already flexing its economic muscle. As Ottawa weighs its options, the fate of the F-35 deal encapsulates a broader reckoning: how Canada navigates its complex relationship with its southern neighbor in an era of uncertainty. With the first batch of jets due in early 2026, time is running short to chart a new course—or to double down on a partnership now under unprecedented strain.