Russia's aviation sector faces a paradoxical situation where a surge in domestic air travel demand, spurred by wartime wage increases, is met with a significant shortage of aircraft. This scenario is largely due to Western sanctions that have curtailed Russia's access to new planes and parts for its predominantly foreign-made fleet. Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has seen its economy buoyed by military-related spending, leading to higher disposable incomes for many Russians.
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This economic stimulus has translated into increased domestic travel, with citizens opting for local holiday destinations or visiting "friendly" countries not aligned against Russia. However, the inability to secure new aircraft or maintain existing ones due to sanctions has left airlines struggling to meet this demand. The Russian civil aviation watchdog, Rosaviatsia, has reported a shift in passenger traffic to domestic routes, with international travel pivoting towards nations like Turkey, ex-Soviet countries, and the United Arab Emirates.
Yet, Russia's fleet, which is two-thirds composed of Airbus and Boeing aircraft, cannot easily be expanded or maintained. The country added only 11 new planes since the invasion, all Russian-made Sukhoi Superjets, compared to 54 in the year prior, highlighting the production lag. This shortage has led to Russia exploring unconventional solutions like asking Central Asian countries to operate domestic flights within Russia. Moreover, the government has provided substantial subsidies to keep the aviation sector afloat, spending at least 1.47 trillion roubles ($13 billion) since the conflict began, with a goal to produce over 1,000 aircraft by 2030. However, the reality of producing, certifying, and deploying these aircraft at scale remains challenging.
The situation has been compounded by technical difficulties; for instance, some Airbus A320neo engines are facing retirement due to maintenance issues exacerbated by the sanctions. This has not only limited the number of available planes but also increased operational costs, potentially leading to higher ticket prices or reduced service levels. As Russia attempts to navigate these constraints, the dichotomy between heightened demand and reduced supply underscores the broader impact of geopolitical tensions on civilian life, particularly in terms of air travel accessibility and economic implications.