Athens, May 13 - The global airline industry, still navigating the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, faces a challenging future, according to Akbar Al Baker, the former CEO of Qatar Airways. Speaking at the CAPA Airline Leader Summit in Athens in May 2025, Al Baker delivered a stark warning about the turbulent years ahead, driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and shifting economic priorities. His remarks, grounded in decades of experience leading one of the world’s premier airlines, underscore the fragility of an industry striving to regain stability while confronting unprecedented headwinds. Al Baker’s tenure at Qatar Airways, spanning nearly three decades until his resignation in November 2023, saw the carrier rise from a modest regional operator to a global powerhouse, making his insights particularly weighty.
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Al Baker highlighted trade wars as a primary concern, pointing to the intensifying “America First” policies under the Trump administration as a catalyst for global economic friction. These policies, characterized by aggressive tariffs and protectionist measures, threaten to disrupt the interconnected supply chains that airlines rely on for aircraft production and maintenance. He noted that aircraft manufacturers, such as Boeing and Airbus, are grappling with record backlogs, exacerbated by delays in delivering new planes. This bottleneck is partly due to suppliers prioritizing military contracts over commercial aviation, as global defense spending surges amid geopolitical instability. For airlines, this translates to limited fleet expansion and modernization, hampering their ability to meet rising passenger demand or replace aging aircraft.
Geopolitical tensions, beyond trade disputes, add further complexity. Al Baker cited ongoing conflicts and diplomatic strains as risks that could destabilize key markets, disrupt flight routes, and increase operational costs. The airline industry, inherently sensitive to global events, faces potential recessions triggered by these uncertainties. Carriers still recovering from pandemic-era losses are ill-equipped to absorb additional financial shocks, such as fluctuating fuel prices or reduced passenger confidence in volatile regions. Al Baker’s warning suggests that airlines must brace for a period of heightened risk, where adaptability and financial resilience will be critical.
Supply chain crises, another focal point of Al Baker’s remarks, have ripple effects across the industry. The prioritization of defense needs over civilian aviation has strained the availability of critical components, from engines to avionics. This scarcity not only delays new aircraft deliveries but also complicates maintenance schedules, potentially grounding planes for extended periods. For an industry where operational efficiency is paramount, these disruptions could erode profit margins and force airlines to pass costs onto consumers, risking a decline in demand. Al Baker’s prognosis, while grim, reflects the realities of an industry at a crossroads. His comments serve as a call to action for airline leaders to innovate, diversify supply chains, and strengthen strategic partnerships. As Qatar Airways’ successor CEO, Badr Mohammed Al-Meer, steers the airline into a new era, the challenges outlined by Al Baker will test the resilience of even the most robust carriers. The coming years, marked by economic and geopolitical turbulence, will demand agility and foresight to navigate an increasingly unpredictable landscape.