Cairo, May 8 - In early May 2025, the sight of an Egyptian military officer seated in the cockpit of a Chinese J-10S trainer jet during the inaugural Eagles of Civilization 2025 joint air exercise has reignited speculation about a potential arms deal between Egypt and China. This 18-day military exercise, held at Egypt’s Wadi Abu Rish Air Base and concluding on May 5, marked the first-ever joint air training between the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and the Egyptian Air Force. The event showcased advanced Chinese military hardware, including the J-10C multirole fighter, a YU-20 aerial refueling tanker, and a KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft, alongside Egypt’s MiG-29M jets. The deployment of these assets, particularly the J-10C, has fueled discussions about Cairo’s interest in diversifying its military suppliers and possibly acquiring Chinese fighter jets, a move that could shift the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East.
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The J-10C, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter, is equipped with advanced avionics, a powerful WS-10B engine, and long-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles capable of engaging targets up to 300 kilometers away. Its appearance in Egypt follows its debut at the Egypt International Air Show in September 2024, where it drew significant attention for its capabilities, often compared to upgraded versions of the U.S. F-16 Fighting Falcon. Egypt, a long-standing U.S. ally with a fleet of over 200 F-16s, has relied heavily on American military aid since the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. However, strained ties with Washington, particularly over issues like the proposed relocation of Palestinians from Gaza, have prompted Cairo to explore alternative suppliers. China, with its Belt and Road Initiative investments in Egyptian infrastructure and a reputation for offering cost-effective arms without political conditions, has emerged as an attractive partner.
Speculation about Egypt purchasing J-10C jets has persisted since mid-2024, with reports suggesting negotiations began as early as 2022. A February 2025 report claimed Egypt had received its first batch of J-10CE jets, the export variant, but China’s Defense Ministry swiftly denied these claims, labeling them “fake news.” Despite the denial, the joint exercise and the presence of an Egyptian pilot in a J-10S trainer jet suggest Cairo is seriously evaluating the aircraft. Analysts note that integrating Chinese jets into Egypt’s air force, which also includes French Rafale and Russian MiG-29M fighters, would reduce reliance on Western suppliers and enhance Egypt’s strategic autonomy. The maintenance challenges faced by Egypt’s MiG-29 fleet, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further underscore the need for reliable alternatives.
China’s growing presence in the Middle Eastern arms market, evidenced by an 80% increase in weapons sales over the past decade, adds context to these developments. Pakistan, a close Chinese ally, acquired J-10CE jets in 2022, making it the primary foreign operator of the platform. A successful deal with Egypt would not only expand China’s arms exports but also strengthen its influence over the Suez Canal, a critical global trade chokepoint. However, recent reports indicate Egypt may be leaning toward South Korea’s FA-50 fighter, with discussions for 100 units and local manufacturing underway. This potential pivot could deal a setback to China’s ambitions, highlighting the competitive nature of Egypt’s modernization efforts. The Eagles of Civilization exercise underscores China’s intent to deepen military ties with Egypt, a key U.S. ally, at a time when U.S. influence in the region faces challenges. For Egypt, the evaluation of Chinese jets represents a pragmatic step toward diversifying its defense capabilities amid evolving regional and global dynamics. Whether Cairo ultimately opts for the J-10C or another platform, the collaboration signals a potential realignment in Middle Eastern defense partnerships, with implications for the balance of power in the region.