India’s growing concern over Egypt’s acquisition of Chinese J-10CE fighter jets stems from a complex interplay of geopolitical, military, and regional dynamics that also resonate with anxieties in Israel and the United States. Egypt, a historically significant player in the Middle East with a robust military tradition, finalized a deal with China in August 2024 to procure these advanced 4.5-generation multirole fighters, with the first batch reportedly arriving in February 2025. Equipped with cutting-edge PL-15 air-to-air missiles boasting a range of up to 300 kilometers in their domestic variant—and approximately 145 kilometers in the export version—the J-10CE enhances Egypt’s air combat capabilities significantly. For India, this development raises strategic questions about the shifting balance of power, its own security interests, and the broader implications of China’s expanding military footprint, concerns that align closely with those of Israel and the US.
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From India’s perspective, Egypt’s pivot to Chinese military hardware is worrisome primarily because it strengthens China’s influence in a region where India has been cultivating ties. India and Egypt share a warm bilateral relationship, bolstered by defense cooperation, trade, and mutual support in multilateral forums. Egypt’s military modernization has traditionally relied on Western suppliers like the United States, with its large fleet of F-16s, and France, with its Rafale jets. However, restrictions on advanced weaponry from these partners—often due to human rights concerns or pressure to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge—have pushed Egypt toward China. The J-10CE, a cost-effective yet capable fighter, offers Egypt an alternative that sidesteps Western political constraints. For India, this shift signals a potential erosion of Western influence, which it has often leveraged to counterbalance China’s growing assertiveness, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
The involvement of China, India’s principal strategic rival, amplifies these concerns. The J-10CE is produced by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation, the same entity behind jets like the J-20 stealth fighter that India monitors closely along its contested border with China. Egypt’s acquisition mirrors Pakistan’s earlier purchase of the J-10CE, which has already heightened India’s security calculus in South Asia. Pakistan, a long-standing adversary, uses these jets to bolster its air force against India’s Rafales and indigenous Tejas fighters. The proliferation of Chinese military technology to Egypt could inspire other nations in India’s extended neighborhood—such as those in the Middle East or Africa—to follow suit, creating a network of Chinese-armed states that might challenge India’s regional influence and complicate its defense planning.
Israel shares India’s unease, albeit from a different angle. As a regional power with a peace treaty with Egypt since 1979, Israel has relied on its air superiority—underpinned by US-supplied F-35 stealth fighters—to maintain a strategic edge. The J-10CE’s advanced radar and long-range missiles could narrow this gap, enabling Egypt to engage targets at distances previously unfeasible with its downgraded F-16s or Rafales, which lack comparable munitions like the Meteor missile due to Western restrictions. Israeli defense circles view this as a potential threat to the delicate balance of power, fearing that enhanced Egyptian capabilities might embolden Cairo in future regional disputes, even if direct conflict remains unlikely. The United States, meanwhile, is concerned about losing its strategic leverage over Egypt, a key ally receiving $1.3 billion in annual military aid. Egypt’s turn to China reflects frustration with US policies, including its refusal to supply advanced missiles like the AIM-120 AMRAAM, partly to preserve Israel’s advantage. This diversification undermines Washington’s ability to shape Egypt’s military posture, a critical factor in maintaining stability in the Middle East—a region where the US also supports India’s growing role as a counterweight to China. For India, Israel, and the US, Egypt’s J-10CE acquisition is a multifaceted challenge. It enhances China’s global arms market presence, potentially at the expense of Western dominance, while altering regional military dynamics. India must now contend with a more assertive China, not just along its borders but across a wider geopolitical chessboard, where allies like Egypt are increasingly drawn into Beijing’s orbit.