Passengers who've experienced a bout of inflight turbulence lately aren't just imagining it. Studies suggest a troubling trend: air travel may be getting bumpier due to climate change. Research published in 2023 indicates a significant increase in clear-air turbulence (CAT), a particularly dangerous form that often goes undetected by radar. This study found that "severe-or-greater" CAT incidents have risen by 55% over the North Atlantic flight path since 1979.
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Experts believe there's a connection between this rise and the increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Climate change disrupts wind patterns, particularly in the upper atmosphere where airplanes cruise. These altered wind patterns create areas of more extreme turbulence. The outlook for the future isn't comforting. If CO2 emissions continue on their current trajectory, the severity and frequency of turbulence events are expected to double in the coming decades.
This poses a significant safety risk for passengers and crew, along with potential delays and disruptions to air travel. While turbulence-related deaths are rare, injuries are a growing concern. Recent incidents, like the one on a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore where a passenger died from a suspected heart attack, and the Qatar Airways flight from Doha to Dublin where twelve passengers and crew were injured, highlight the potential dangers.
Further research is needed to fully understand the complex relationship between climate change and turbulence. However, the evidence so far suggests a clear link. As we navigate the skies in a changing climate, it's crucial to develop strategies to mitigate the risks associated with increased turbulence.