In a recent forecast, Boeing, the U.S. plane manufacturer, has predicted that China will require more than 8,000 new aircraft over the next two decades. This projection is slightly higher than the previous forecast made last year.
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The Demand
Boeing's prediction is based on the anticipated growth in China's aviation market. The majority of the demand is expected to be for single-aisle narrowbodies, with over 1,500 widebody aircraft also required by 2042. The growth of China's economy and domestic air travel, along with the need to replace older aircraft, will drive the demand for new planes.
The Breakdown
According to Boeing's analysis, given the strong demand for domestic travel in China, 6,470 of the 8,560 new planes arriving in the coming years will be single-aisle narrowbodies. As many as 1,550 widebody planes will also be delivered to the country during this time. The demand for regional jets and freighters will be 350 and 190, respectively.
The Effect
Two-thirds of the new planes will be needed due to the fleet development programs of Chinese airlines, while the rest will replace older aircraft and reduce the overall carbon emissions of the country’s aviation sector. All these new planes will also generate employment opportunities. Boeing estimates that these many aircraft will need more than 400,000 aviation personnel, including 134,000 pilots, 138,000 technicians, and 161,000 cabin crew members.
The Global Picture
Boeing predicts that China will account for around 20% of global airplane deliveries over the next 20 years. This aligns with Airbus's prediction earlier this year that China would account for 23% of global aircraft demand over the next two decades. As China's economy and traffic continue to grow, Boeing's complete line-up of commercial jets will play a key role in helping meet that growth sustainably and economically.